This should be one of my more interesting "Idol" recaps yet, as after a bit of a dental emergency this morning I'm currently taking some Paula Abdul-strength painkillers for my infected bicuspid. The "American Idol" from last night would have seemed a bit surreal anyway, with Jason Castro whiffing on two songs right in his wheelhouse, David Cook sounding amateurish and imitative, Syesha Mercado equating her surprise avoidance of elimination last week with the American civil rights movement, and David Archuleta... actually kind of impressing me, at least with his second song. Archuleta's going to win, I'm pretty sure. In fact, the order of elimination now seems written in stone: Jason will go this week, followed by Syesha, and then David Cook, the "edgy" contestant for this season, will bow out gracefully in the final in much the same manner as Blake Lewis did last year. And that's probably best for everyone. Poor Jason, I'm sure, just really wants to get back to College Station so he can rock the ganj with his campus buddies. Syesha doesn't want a record deal, she wants to be a correspondent for "E! News Daily." And there are five record labels with contracts already filled out for David Cook, just needing his signature.

David Cook Cook's "Hungry Like the Wolf" was one of the few very straight cover versions the "rocker" has done all year and it didn't work for him. He garbled a lot of the lyrics and his voice kept moving back and forth between a Simon Le Bon style and Cook's regular scratchy belt. This gave him pitch issues, which also troubled his "Baba O'Riley," a rather peculiar choice that may have offended the core "Idol" demographic with its "they're all wasted" lyric. Like Amanda Overmyer's earlier "Carry On Wayward Son," Pete Townshend's anthem doesn't really lend itself to being truncated so severely. Without the long synth intro and the violin breakdown (and Keith Moon's epochal tom-tom battering) it's just kind of three chords. Cook has been so savvy all season long about finding ways to make each week's theme work for him, even when you would expect him to struggle. It's strange that this time around, with a theme that should have left him free to do pretty much anything he wanted, that he was off his game. As the most consistent singer of the whole season, his path to the final is clear. But to have any chance of dethroning Cutie McAdorablepants he's going to have to better his best. He better, he better, you bet. 6/7

Syesha Mercado Syesha doesn't know very much about either music history or American history. I think Randy Jackson was reacting in the same way I did to Syesha's glib appropriation of Sam Cooke's "A Change Is Gonna Come" when he said he didn't care for the alterations she made to the melody. What he was really saying was, come on, little girl, comparing not getting voted off a singing contest TV show to the struggle of an entire people to be free is deeply, deeply offensive. I was also agitated by Syesha's introducing "Proud Mary," her other tune, as being by Tina Turner. No ma'am, John Fogerty penned that tune. Putting aside Syesha's total ignorance of some of the major figures of American culture (which should make her perfect for work in television), she was a mixed bag yesterday evening. "Proud Mary" despite a vigorous hip-shaking performance from the young ingenue was marred by a lot of screechy notes and a limp and uncomfortable introduction. All of the effort that Syesha put into her dance moves should have gone into further practice on the singing. Mercado's "Change" was a good vocal, if you ignore the kind of dense implicit analogy that getting more telephone votes than Brooke White is the equivalent of a century-long battle for basic human dignity that has cost many lives. Her breakdown after the song was over, with a clunky attempt to again play on a past history that she blatantly obviously has no understanding of, seemed utterly calculated to me. I can understand why she might be desperate. They said at the top of the show that three of the four contestants remaining have been a top vote-getter at least once. It doesn't take a genius to figure out which one has never made it. Jason Castro's implosion most likely preserves Syesha for another week. Hopefully next time out she won't compare herself to a Holocaust survivor. 7/9

Jason Castro I'm really beginning to think that I hit the nail on the head with my theory that Jason is deliberately sabotaging himself because he misses smoking pot so much. He certainly came across as a burnout with a dreadful, talent show-level "I Shot the Sheriff" and a solo "Mr. Tambourine Man" in which he somehow managed to forget the second half of one of the most famous choruses in all of rock and roll. The less said about the tuneless, gaspy "Sheriff," the better. As for the Dylan cover, it might have been OK if he hadn't fluffed the "jingle-jangle morning" line, but once he made that mistake, he was visibly flustered for the rest of the tune. Jason's body language all night seemed very reminiscent of Brooke White's last time out. He even seemed to relax and make eye contact with audience members during "I Shot the Sheriff." It's been a good ride but it's time to go home. I'm pretty curious about what a Jason Castro debut album might sound like, but less so than several weeks ago. His lackadaisical attitude -- it seems like he's been coasting almost since the male and female casts merged two months ago -- does not bode well for his future. 5/6

David Archuleta There was a really interesting article in Entertainment Weekly last week about the "Idol" song choice process. Apparently David Archuleta's father is allowed to sit in during the whole process and give his opinions, which basically amounts to his dictating to his pliable son precisely what he will sing and how. No wonder David's introductory clips always seem monumentally disconnected -- he doesn't know why he's picked any of his songs because he didn't pick them. That's gross. I wish that "Idol" showed Archuleta's icky stage-parent father so that voters were able to see the reality of the situation. I hope that this time next year Little David isn't suing his folks for emancipation. Anyway, Mr. Archuleta's first pick was "Stand By Me," a pretty obvious David tune. I felt as if the band diverged from the familiar arrangement too much with a slow tempo and hand percussion and David's vocal freelanced from the set melody far too often. It was also during these ad libs that he tended to have the most pitch problems. His "Love Me Tender," by contrast, was absolutely beautiful. Easily the best vocal of the night, and David's best in some weeks. If he was this good each and every time out, I would have far fewer objections to the incessant hype receives on the part of the judges and producers. 7/9

The picks: Jason Castro, right? Unless he really is an order of magnitude more popular than Syesha. But Syesha really wants to stay another week and Castro pretty obviously longs for his drum kit and his bong. Four-sided die says Syesha Mercado. One or the other of us is going to be right.